Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 92291.173194 97339.720350 102386.632828 107807.065140 113460.442893 119179.430014 125398.603788
2025-10-26 83228.795948 90885.729789 98753.786456 107432.719026 116727.026588 126371.243892 137124.507264
2025-11-02 77218.767769 86665.822858 96585.154558 107755.750168 119963.651008 132878.311719 147551.813113
2025-11-09 72356.283478 83108.372873 94604.484542 107776.019845 122413.987842 138146.525025 156297.494164
2025-11-16 69143.794886 81026.333867 93931.467868 108937.604752 125854.053377 144280.450738 165814.678408
2025-11-23 65674.329812 78392.726445 92405.172970 108919.806064 127778.784647 148570.070659 173149.531637
2025-11-30 63574.870115 77152.007740 92303.580385 110375.803334 131250.454873 154509.053436 182283.963328
2025-12-07 61438.547416 75729.027473 91869.685587 111338.013712 134065.019191 159636.771442 190458.720608
2025-12-14 58969.845903 73786.915955 90717.345170 111358.129465 135698.794346 163342.094502 196954.626241
2025-12-21 56885.023827 72196.513608 89883.931753 111665.302951 137594.764052 167298.236787 203710.699268
2025-12-28 55687.595451 71603.003876 90172.474982 113250.125679 140958.984158 172949.756131 212454.199385
2026-01-04 54358.730924 70784.104719 90134.871370 114396.705196 143768.229262 177933.349466 220418.766766
2026-01-11 52826.843435 69673.899734 89715.858239 115067.896628 146012.930123 182277.788729 227688.490487
2026-01-18 51145.252041 68317.493605 88944.547578 115265.799280 147654.945373 185890.510394 234094.716565
2026-01-25 49705.402400 67208.889737 88429.406044 115734.979896 149595.141169 189845.191174 240915.557314
2026-02-01 48149.754451 65897.326759 87611.699793 115783.553772 150983.108372 193110.043954 246897.438701
2026-02-08 47249.248207 65387.541290 87767.138266 117021.155216 153825.446457 198145.036696 255053.655765
2026-02-15 45820.076815 64146.252509 86955.436194 117003.522225 155075.949482 201213.494789 260801.424402
2026-02-22 45173.990785 63899.913318 87388.916847 118547.655419 158277.057076 206693.235387 269545.920661
2026-03-01 44332.198609 63365.426605 87427.288587 119567.876360 160807.754803 211345.728907 277288.023442
2026-03-08 43100.228733 62274.567183 86712.139976 119589.214920 162048.396987 214379.687825 283019.624880
2026-03-15 42055.319771 61401.930563 86252.164436 119914.871872 163658.966675 217869.493922 289328.746741
2026-03-22 41621.178182 61337.084865 86838.468417 121594.896371 167009.196157 223562.399063 298437.642704